Is ECFA a helper or a killer to Taiwan's economy?

The issue of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has been discussed in everyday news recently in Taiwan. Though, the TVs and the news are talking about it, many people (well, my friends) seem that they don't exaclty know what ECFA is about.

I searched on wiki in order to get a background information:

"Taiwan needs to remain globally competitive in the face of globalization and the signing of FTAsAustralia, the ASEAN bloc, Japan, South Korea and mainland China. The political status of Taiwan prevents it from signing FTAs with neighboring economic powers."

(original source from wiki)


ECFA is the aggrement about reducing tariff between Taiwan and mainland China. The main purpose is to expand the export market, to create more opportunities of employment, and to promote the economic prosperity in Taiwan.

President of Taiwan, Ma Ying-Jeou

On April 25, there was a televised debate about ECFA and related issues (such as the intense political issue with mainland China) held between President of Taiwan, also as a chairman of Nationalist Party, Ma Ying-Jeou, and the chairwoman of Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-Wen. President Ma has stated that Taiwan must sign ECFA to prevent it from being marginalized in the ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region. Tsai considered that signing ECFA would only make economy in Taiwan even worse, and might bring up political issues with mainland China. (Here is an article in English about the debate.)

I've watched this 142 minutes debate on youtube during the golden week. Although President Ma had been very persuasive on his speech, he did not think about that signing a free trade agreement with only "one nation" (mainland china), is also bringing Taiwan to marginalization. (Due to the fact that Taiwan could not join FTA is because of mainland China...) On the other hand, if the government does nothing about it, Taiwan would probably lose its economic status in the wold soon.

If ECFA is signed, will Taiwan lose its right of anti-dumping to China?
Due to the principle of reciprocity in WTO, China could asks Taiwan to import China's Crops without tariff as well.

After Mexico signed NAFTA(North American Free Trade Agreement) with the United States, 1,300,000 peasants in Mexico lost their jobs, 7,500 enterprises went bankrupt.

Will Taiwan become the second Mexico? 

(ECFA will be finalized and signed presently sometime in June, 2010.)